Understanding the growing terrorism threat in Africa
Backgrounder – global terrorism trends
To understand the growing threat of terrorism in Africa one must first examine the four waves of terrorism. The first wave occurred during the post 9/11 era (2001-2010) when the U.S. declared a “war on terror”, targeting al-Qa’ida and the Taliban. Military inventions in Afghanistan and Iraq shifted terror activity toward insurgency . In 2011-2017 the Arab Spring, civil wars in Libya and Syria, and power vacuums enabled extremist groups like the Islamic State (IS) to gain traction. During this period, IS declared a caliphate in 2014, attracting global recruits and inspiring attacks worldwide in preparation for the third wave: the decentralisation and fragmentation of terror groups (2018 to date). From increased lone wolf attacks in the West, to the loss of IS territory, global terrorism moved from being centralised in the Middle East to regional fragmentation. As such, Africa, South Asia and the Middle East emerged as terrorism hotspots due to weakened state control and local grievances.
The final wave – current trends (2020s) – saw Africa emerge as the epicentre of global terrorism, notably the Sahel, Lake Chad Basin and Horn of Africa. The concept of decentralisation extended online, from recruitment through video games and social media, to the use of digital currencies to solicit donations and channel funds ; a blind spot for counter-terrorist financing operations due to increased challenges in tracking the flow of funds.
Impact of global terrorism on Africa
As of 2024, Six (6) of the top ten (10) countries on the Global Terrorism Index are Sahelian, showing the concentrated nature of terrorism – the top 10 accounting for 87% of all terrorism-related deaths. The central Sahel now makes up over 50% of all deaths from terrorism; an almost 10X increase since 2019 . Alignment can be drawn between global terror statistics and events across the Sahel. In the West, teenagers account for most IS-linked arrests in Europe, with terror attacks increasing by 63%. This shows the persistence of the Islamic State on an international scale. Global fatalities in terrorism related deaths increased by 22% (2024), which is the highest recorded deaths since 2017. The concentration of the impact is evident with over 90% of terror attacks and 98% of terrorism deaths occurring in conflict zones .
Most affected regions
The Islamic State remains the deadliest organisation, with its West African province maintaining a highly organised financial ecosystem to sustain operations through a blend of extortion, smuggling and taxation (earning over $48 million annually through fish farming in the Lake Chad Basin ). With makeshift clinics and rudimentary schools in areas under the Islamic State in the West African Province’s (ISWAP) influence, the group runs a pseudo-government – a State underpinned by violent coercion.
Further into the Sahel where JNIM and IS Sahel Province (“ISSP” formerly IS in the Greater Sahara) operate, Burkina Faso suffered the worst impact from terrorism, with deaths increasing by 68% despite attacks decreasing by 17% . Neighboring Niger recorded the largest increase in terrorism-related deaths globally, surging by 94% in 2024 under the JNIM coalition.
Moving eastbound, Somalia is fast becoming a nerve centre to watch due to its nexus between the Gulf and Horn of Africa. The political instability of Puntland forms a strategic bridge and international terrorism hub with fighters from Ethiopia, Libya, Tunisia, Saudia Arabia, Morocco, Tanzania, Yemen, Algeria, Sudan and Syria . Islamic State Somalia (ISS) leader and global caliph Abdulqadir Mumin brings additional esteem to the group by representing a geopolitical shift in the group’s strategy considering the past five caliphs were in Iraq.
In 2020, months after losing its final territory in the Middle East, the Islamic State restructured its African operations, placing the Islamic State in the Mozambique Province (ISMP) affiliates in Cabo Delgado, and ADF/ISCAP (Islamic State in the Central African Province) in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo under al-Karrar, the Islamic State’s Somali financial hub. Both groups, which have received funding from the Somali branch, have since massacred thousands of civilians. Through ISS’ control of the al-Karrar office in Puntland, it oversees and coordinates these affiliates, spreading violent extremism not only in Central and Eastern Africa, but also funding in Turkey and Yemen .
The al-Karrar office coordinates finances, issues directives, and provides other support between the groups’ affiliates in local theatres, the global Daesh network, and central IS leadership. For example, ISS has been channeling hundreds of thousands of dollars of monthly revenue from mobile money and financial institution extortion rackets in northern Somalia back into IS networks/affiliates . Al Karrar also sends trainers in addition to funds to ADF/ISCAP and ISMP, directly growing the capabilities of both groups since their inception . ADF/ISCAP and ISMP pose a destabilizing threat not only to the DRC and Mozambique, but to other neighbouring countries in the region, further emphasising the need for enhanced joint counter terrorism efforts by all stakeholders to eradicate both terrorist groups, and prevent additional offshoots.
The Islamic State’s five deadliest and exceedingly active provinces in Africa capitalise on governance gaps and ethnic tensions to control and establish more territory: ISCAP, ISMP, ISSP, ISS, and ISWAP. With the Sahel, Somalia and Lake Chad Basin accounting for 98% of continental fatalities, it is no surprise the Sahel has reigned the most lethal theatre of violence for the fourth year running. Unfortunately, this violence extends to civilians, with 41% of events a result of violence against civilians, a higher percentage than anywhere else.
Conclusion
All is not lost, with a sharp decline of militant extremist group activity in North Africa and virtually no fatalities or reported violent events in the past two years . Shared success stories from North African governments and intelligence agencies should be reworked through context- and culture-specific inter-governmental cooperation. Addressing social grievances, effective intelligence collection coupled with capacity building in Muslim-dominant countries should be prioritised to solve Africa’s security problems. Building continental trust and promoting Pan-Africanism will positively impact the mass displacement , ethnical violence, humanitarian and socioeconomic effects of ongoing violence.
The African continent now bears a disproportionate burden of terrorism’s human, political, and economic costs, which cannot be fixed with financial aid from the West or other superpowers that only serve to exacerbate the nation’s debt. Addressing the threat requires not only security measures but long-term strategies involving governance reform, economic development, education, and regional cooperation, particularly in intelligence sharing and the adoption of emerging technologies to counter terrorism, both in the digital realm and physical battlefield. With intentional cooperation and trust, Africa alone can solve Africa’s problems.